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. 2021 Aug 26;118(36):e2107590118. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2107590118

Table 1.

Estimates of annual excess deaths from COVID-19 in the United States, 12-mo periods ending on December 31, 2020, and March 31, 2021

12-mo period ending
December 31, 2020 (1) March 31, 2021 (2)
Country
National COVID-19 ratio
 France 0.69 0.65
 Germany 0.28 0.39
 Italy 0.76 0.64
 Spain 0.77 0.64
 United Kingdom 0.91 0.96
 Five-country average 0.65 0.64
US COVID-19 deaths
 Total deaths 382,073 536,764
 Excess deaths 132,173 190,867

Sources: National COVID-19 ratios are from Heuveline and Tzen (2) and subsequent updates (9); five-country average is a weighted average with mid-2020 total population size from United Nations (10) as weights; US COVID-19 total deaths are from CDC (11), yearly 2020, all sexes, all ages, for 12-mo period ending on December 31, 2020, and monthly April 2020 to monthly March 2021, all sexes, all ages, for 12-mo period ending on March 31, 2021; excess deaths = total deaths × (1 − “five-country average”).