Table 3.
Summary of PRRS virus spread simulation among pig farms in Lira district, Uganda for baseline, direct only, and Indirect only scenarios.
| Scenario | Median number of infectious farms at the end of 52 weeks (5th, 95th percentile) | Proportion of infectious farms at the end of 52 weeks | Peak Week | Median number of infected farms for the entire simulation (5th, 95th percentile) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | Small | Small scavenging | Medium | Large | |||||
| SC1 | Baseline | 735 (550, 845) | 36.75% | 52 | 1,800 (1,407, 1,842) | 995 (734, 1,023) | 178 (162, 190) | 434 (347, 444) | 192 (153, 197) |
| SC2 | Direct only | 106 (20, 203) | 5.3% | 52 | 79 (1, 460) | 26 (1, 166) | 22 (0, 102) | 22 (0, 130) | 11 (0, 66) |
| SC3 | Indirect | 39 (7, 81) | 1.95% | 52 | 92 (1, 229) | 43 (1, 112) | 19 (0, 44) | 20 (0, 49) | 10 (0, 26) |
| SC4 | Indirect spread by equipment sharing only | 20 (3, 46) | 1% | 52 | 51 (1, 134) | 25 (1, 65) | 9 (0, 21) | 12 (0, 30) | 5 (0, 16) |
| SC5 | Indirect spread by scavenging only | 5 (3, 8) | 0.25% | 52 | 9 (4, 10) | NA | 9 (4, 10) | NA | NA |
| SC6 | Direct and indirect contact without scavenging | 703 (510, 823) | 35.2% | 52 | 1,782 (2, 1,828) | 986 (1, 1,019) | 174 (1, 180) | 432 (0, 443) | 192 (0, 197) |