Table 1.
Demographic, epidemiological and vaccine efficacy input values (base case)
| Age (years) | 50–54 | 55–59 | 60–64 | 65–69 | 70–74 | 75–79 | 80+ | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population size of age cohort in 2018 |
3,310,000 |
1,234,000 |
840,000 |
988,000 |
586,000 |
Beijing Statistical Yearbook 201923 |
|||
| All-cause annual mortality probability (%)† |
0.44 |
0.56 |
1.14 |
1.96 |
2.94 |
4.93 |
80–84: 8.66 85–89: 13.39 90–94: 21.27 95–99: 30.70 100+: 41.95 |
Global Burden of Disease 201724 |
|
| HZ incidence (per 1,000 population) |
8.03 |
10.33 |
11.41 |
14.00 |
Jiang et al. 201925 |
||||
| Proportion of HZ cases developing PHN (%) |
6.30 |
10.30 |
11.40 |
30.50 |
Jiang et al. 201925 |
||||
| Proportion of HZ cases developing other HZ-related complications (%) | Jiang et al. 201925 | ||||||||
| Ocular | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.40 | |||||
| Neurological (meningitis) | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.20 | |||||
| Auricular | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.70 | 1.40 | |||||
| Other |
0.60 |
0.80 |
1.30 |
0.60 |
|||||
| HZ-related mortality (% of HZ cases) |
0.0000 |
0.0020 |
0.0092 |
80–84: 0.0210 85–89: 0.0467 90–94: 0.1204 95–99: 0.1960 100+: 0.9476 |
Shiragami et al. 201926 |
||||
| Mean hospitalizations (per HZ case) |
0.014 |
0.026 |
0.039 |
0.081 |
Suo et al. 201927 |
||||
| Mean outpatient visits (per HZ case)‡ |
2.386 |
2.374 |
2.361 |
2.319 |
|||||
| Initial HZ and PHN vaccine efficacy [1-dose] |
90.0% |
69.5% |
van Oorschot et al. 2019;3 Curran et al. 201720 |
||||||
| Initial HZ and PHN vaccine efficacy [2-dose] |
98.4% |
97.8% |
|||||||
| Annual RZV waning [1-dose] | van Oorschot et al. 2019;3 Curran et al. 201720 | ||||||||
| Years 1–4 after vaccination | 5.4% | ||||||||
| Years 4+ after vaccination |
5.1% |
||||||||
| Annual RZV waning [2-dose] | |||||||||
| Years 1–4 after vaccination | 1.0% | 3.6% | |||||||
| Years 4+ after vaccination | 2.3% | ||||||||
HZ: herpes zoster; PHN: postherpetic neuralgia; RZV: recombinant zoster vaccine. †The all-cause mortality probability reported for age 100–104 years in the Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network was used to represent that for age 100+ years in the current analysis. ‡The average number of outpatient visits per age group was estimated by subtracting the reported proportion of hospitalizations per HZ case from the reported total 2.4 healthcare visits – which include both outpatient visits and hospitalizations – per HZ case across all age groups.