Table 1.
Treatment effect | Prior distribution |
Posterior probability of treatment effect |
Outcome of frequentist analysis | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Positive (4) | Negative or indeterminate (78) |
|||
MCID | Skeptical | > 90% | 1 (25%) | 0 (0%) |
> 75% | 2 (50%) | 2 (3%) | ||
> 50% | 2 (50%) | 7 (9%) | ||
Uninformative | > 90% | 2 (50%) | 1 (1%) | |
> 75% | 2 (50%) | 7 (9%) | ||
> 50% | 2 (50%) | 12 (15%) | ||
Enthusiastic | > 90% | 2 (50%) | 2 (3%) | |
> 75% | 2 (50%) | 7 (9%) | ||
> 50% | 2 (50%) | 19 (24%) | ||
Any benefit (ARR>0) | Skeptical | > 50% | 4 (100%) | 36 (46%) |
> 90% | 4 (100%) | 3 (4%) | ||
Uninformative | > 50% | 4 (100%) | 36 (46%) | |
> 90% | 4 (100%) | 7 (9%) | ||
Enthusiastic | > 50% | 4 (100%) | 61 (78%) | |
> 90% | 4 (100%) | 18 (23%) | ||
Planned effect | Skeptical | > 50% | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Uninformative | > 50% | 1 (25%) | 0 (0%) | |
Enthusiastic | > 50% | 0 (0%) | 1 (1%) |
MCID = Minimum clinically important difference
ARR = Absolute risk reduction
This table shows the number and percentage of studies according to frequentist classification (fourth and fifth columns) where the posterior probability of achieving clinical benefit (defined by first column) according to each prior (second column) is greater than the posterior probability threshold (third column). For example, among studies classified as negative by frequentist criteria there are zero studies where the posterior probability of clinical benefit exceeds 90% using the skeptical prior distribution and the MCID as the threshold for clinical benefit.