Table 2.
Effect of treatment on movement outcomes
| Mean (95% CI) | OLS model | Number of days × counties | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Campaign | Outcome | Period | High-intensity county | Low-intensity county | High-intensity county (95% CI) | P value | RI P value | |
| Both campaigns | Distance traveled | From day − 3 to day − 1 | −4.384 (−4.973,−3.796) | −3.603 (−4.254, −2.952) | −0.993 (−1.616, −0.371) | 0.002 | 0.002 | 4,059 |
| Both campaigns | Share ever left home | Thanksgiving (26 November) or Christmas (24–25 December) | 72.326 (72.012, 72.639) | 72.381 (72.092, 72.670) | 0.030 (−0.361, 0.420) | 0.881 | 0.911 | 2,017 |
| Thanksgiving | Distance traveled | From day − 3 to day − 1 | −6.082 (−6.822, −5.341) | −5.320 (−6.113, −4.527) | −0.924 (−1.785, −0.063) | 0.035 | 0.030 | 2,072 |
| Thanksgiving | Share ever left home | Thanksgiving (26 November) | 71.308 (70.885, 71.731) | 71.468 (71.071, 71.866) | 0.012 (−0.438, 0.461) | 0.959 | 0.966 | 689 |
| Christmas | Distance traveled | From day − 3 to day − 1 | −2.603 (−3.279, −1.927) | −1.823 (−2.588, −1.057) | −1.041 (−1.847, −0.235) | 0.011 | 0.008 | 1,987 |
| Christmas | Share ever left home | Christmas (24–25 December) | 72.859 (72.507, 73.210) | 72.852 (72.520, 73.185) | 0.095 (−0.289, 0.479) | 0.629 | 0.580 | 1,328 |
The control and treatment means at the county level and different periods, in addition to the estimate of the treatment coefficient in Eq. (1). Standard errors are clustered at the county level. 95% CIs are reported in parentheses. P values are based on a two-sided test. RI P values are computed using randomization inference, accounting for the two-stage design.