TABLE 1.

Data structure: $Y_{tk}$ denotes the observed count at occasion t of category k for each of the $K=6$ categories for the COVID‐19 application; $X_{tjk}$ denotes the number of transitions from category j to category k at time t

	S	R	Q	H	ICU	D	Total
S	$X_{t11}$	$X_{t12}$	$X_{t13}$	$X_{t14}$	$X_{t15}$	$X_{t16}$	$Y_{t-1,1}$
R	0	$X_{t22}$	$X_{t23}$	$X_{t24}$	$X_{t25}$	$X_{t26}$	$Y_{t-1,2}$
Q	0	$X_{t32}$	$X_{t33}$	$X_{t34}$	$X_{t35}$	$X_{t36}$	$Y_{t-1,3}$
H	0	$X_{t42}$	$X_{t43}$	$X_{t44}$	$X_{t45}$	$X_{t46}$	$Y_{t-1,4}$
ICU	0	$X_{t52}$	$X_{t53}$	$X_{t54}$	$X_{t55}$	$X_{t56}$	$Y_{t-1,5}$
D	0	0	0	0	0	$X_{t66}$	$Y_{t-1,6}$
Total	$Y_{t1}$	$Y_{t2}$	$Y_{t3}$	$Y_{t4}$	$Y_{t5}$	$Y_{t6}$	N