TABLE 4.

Realized values of the discrepancy measures according to Models 7 and 8 for the forecasted cases in Italy and posterior p‐values over a period of 10 days

	Model 7			Model 8
Day	${\widehat{\text{Dist}}}_t$	${\widetilde{\text{Dist}}}_t$	p‐value	${\widehat{\text{Dist}}}_t$	${\widetilde{\text{Dist}}}_t$	p‐value
25th April	18.971	9.128	0.202	7.383	23.344	0.769
26th April	200.800	16.790	0.003	60.573	44.372	0.403
27th April	596.703	23.242	0.000	2200.393	63.880	0.198
28th April	1202.657	28.746	0.000	335.829	81.942	0.161
29th April	2222.529	33.588	0.000	505.395	98.120	0.137
30th April	2664.510	37.776	0.000	434.868	113.028	0.164
1st May	4779.427	41.501	0.000	658.215	127.831	0.118
2nd May	8358.893	44.679	0.000	929.957	140.980	0.103
3rd May	13544.235	47.837	0.000	1219.478	153.172	0.095
4th May	21402.362	51.219	0.000	1767.593	165.840	0.069