Table 6.
Risk transmission channels.
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government Response | ΔCoVaR | Log Z | ΔCoVaR | |
| COVID19_GR | 0.180⁎⁎⁎ | -0.185⁎⁎⁎ | ||
| (4.03) | (-18.94) | |||
| Government Response | 11.811⁎⁎⁎ | |||
| (2.92) | ||||
| log Z | -9.078⁎⁎⁎ | |||
| (-12.43) | ||||
| Size | -0.002 | -0.047 | 0.053⁎⁎⁎ | -0.465⁎⁎⁎ |
| (-1.03) | (-1.00) | (6.67) | (-4.04) | |
| Leverage | -0.000 | 0.008⁎⁎⁎ | 0.003⁎⁎⁎ | 0.007* |
| (-0.31) | (2.77) | (14.24) | (1.76) | |
| Return | -0.003 | -0.451⁎⁎⁎ | 0.061⁎⁎ | -0.226 |
| (-0.66) | (-3.67) | (2.27) | (-0.60) | |
| Volatility | 0.000 | 0.195⁎⁎⁎ | 0.002⁎⁎ | 0.452⁎⁎⁎ |
| (0.33) | (6.98) | (2.16) | (45.62) | |
| Bank FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Day FE | Yes | Yes | No | No |
| Country Cluster | Yes | Yes | No | No |
| Observations | 327,623 | 327,623 | 3,173 | 3,173 |
| Adj. R2 | 0.677 | 0.084 | 0.958 | 0.425 |
This table reports results on the channels through which COVID-19 affects systemic risk. Columns (1) and (2) test the stringency of the government response channel, while columns (3) and (4) test the default risk channel. The sample in columns (1) and (2) consists of 1,584 banks in 64 countries over the February 6–December 10, 2020 period. The sample in columns (3) and (4) consists of 19 Chinese banks over the same period. We use a two-step regression approach. Columns (1) and (3) show the first-step regression results; columns (2) and (4) show the corresponding second-step regression results. ΔCoVaR is the proxy for systemic risk; Government Response is the 14-day moving average growth rate of the government response index; log Z is the log of , where Capital Ratio is the capital-to-asset ratio and ROA is return on assets; COVID19_GR is the 14-day moving average log growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases; Size is the log of demeaned market capitalization; Leverage is the sum of the market value of equity and book liabilities divided by the market value of equity; Return is bank stock return; Volatility is the standard deviation of bank retruns over the previous 30 days. All specifications include bank fixed effects and control variables. All control variables are lagged. Columns (1) and (2) also include day fixed effects, and standard errors are adjusted for clustering at the country level. t-statistics are in brackets. ***, **, and * indicate statistical significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively.