Table 1.

Policy summary

Background	Brazil’s national response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been distressing, resulting in a high and unequal mortality burden. The country comprises only 2.7% of the world’s population, but 12.7% of COVID-19 deaths worldwide (as of June 9, 2021). That death toll will result in substantial reductions in life expectancy in 2020 and 2021 with marked differences by sex and by states.
Main findings and limitations	Several methods were used to estimate the decline in life expectancy at birth and at age 65. We show that 2020 life expectancy in the presence of COVID-19 is equivalent to mortality levels observed in Brazil as far back as 20 or more years in some states. The impact on 2021 life expectancy is estimated to be even larger. Despite the assumptions underlying these estimates, it is unquestionable that the death toll from COVID-19 in Brazil has been catastrophic.
Policy implications	Our findings show that life expectancy in Brazil declined substantially in 2020, is expected to decline even more in 2021, and the pre-pandemic trajectory of improvement in life expectancy is likely to slow down at least in next two years. Without enhanced coordination of the pandemic response, expansion of testing, and a rapid increase in vaccination, Brazil will continue to experience an unbearable loss in human life.