Table 4.
Characteristics of patients at highest risk of covid-19 related death (top 5%) from 14 days after covid-19 vaccination in the validation cohort using QCovid3 model. Data are numbers (percentages) unless stated otherwise
| Characteristics | Patients in top 5% highest risk of covid-19 death (n=28 751) | Patients not in top 5% highest risk of covid-19 death (n=546 281) |
|---|---|---|
| 14 days after vaccination: | ||
| Covid-19 related death | 115 (0.40) | 49 (0.01) |
| Covid-19 related hospital admission | 86 (0.30) | 86 (0.02) |
| Sex: | ||
| Women | 12 627 (43.92) | 290 694 (53.21) |
| Men | 16 124 (56.08) | 255 587 (46.79) |
| Mean age (SD) | 85.48 (5.65) | 53.39 (15.52) |
| Mean Townsend deprivation score (SD) | −0.21 (2.94) | 0.01 (3.05) |
| Mean body mass index (SD) | 27.23 (5.50) | 27.76 (5.68) |
| Ethnic origin: | ||
| White | 26 508 (92.20) | 463 902 (84.92) |
| Indian | 848 (2.95) | 18 339 (3.36) |
| Pakistani | 402 (1.40) | 8441 (1.55) |
| Bangladeshi | 53 (0.18) | 4063 (0.74) |
| Other Asian | 158 (0.55) | 9178 (1.68) |
| Caribbean | 434 (1.51) | 6275 (1.15) |
| Black African | 52 (0.18) | 14 708 (2.69) |
| Chinese | 26 (0.09) | 3590 (0.66) |
| Other | 270 (0.94) | 17 785 (3.26) |
| Chronic kidney disease: | ||
| None | 18 259 (63.51) | 528 091 (96.67) |
| Stage 3 | 9237 (32.13) | 16 640 (3.05) |
| Stage 4 | 827 (2.88) | 609 (0.11) |
| Stage 5 only | 309 (1.07) | 387 (0.07) |
| Stage 5 with dialysis | 52 (0.18) | 161 (0.03) |
| Stage 5 with transplantation | 67 (0.23) | 393 (0.07) |
| Chemotherapy: | ||
| None in past 12 months | 28 035 (97.51) | 543 184 (99.43) |
| Group A | 144 (0.50) | 1242 (0.23) |
| Group B | 536 (1.86) | 1712 (0.31) |
| Group C | 36 (0.13) | 143 (0.03) |
| Type 2 diabetes: | ||
| No type 2 diabetes | 20 607 (71.67) | 501 199 (91.75) |
| HbA1c ≤59 mmol/mol (≤7.5%) | 5794 (20.15) | 29 176 (5.34) |
| HbA1c >59 mmol/mol (>7.5%) | 2350 (8.17) | 15 906 (2.91) |
| Other pre-existing health conditions: | ||
| Blood cancer | 838 (2.91) | 2824 (0.52) |
| Bone marrow or solid organ transplant | 21 (0.07) | 133 (0.02) |
| Respiratory cancer | 377 (1.31) | 1034 (0.19) |
| Recent radiotherapy | 219 (0.76) | 646 (0.12) |
| Down’s syndrome | 39 (0.14) | 319 (0.06) |
| Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 4018 (13.98) | 15 265 (2.79) |
| Coronary heart disease | 7489 (26.05) | 20 457 (3.74) |
| Stroke | 4627 (16.09) | 11 039 (2.02) |
| Atrial fibrillation | 5986 (20.82) | 11 266 (2.06) |
| Heart failure | 3316 (11.53) | 4694 (0.86) |
| Venous thromboembolism | 2545 (8.85) | 10 322 (1.89) |
| Dementia | 3698 (12.86) | 1407 (0.26) |
| Parkinson’s disease | 635 (2.21) | 987 (0.18) |
| Epilepsy | 549 (1.91) | 9286 (1.70) |
| Rare neurological conditions | 220 (0.77) | 2131 (0.39) |
| Liver cirrhosis | 253 (0.88) | 1188 (0.22) |
| Sickle cell disease | 12 (0.04) | 196 (0.04) |
| HIV/AIDS | 36 (0.13) | 1667 (0.31) |
| Severe combined immunodeficiency | 22 (0.08) | 280 (0.05) |
SD=standard deviation; HbA1c=glycated haemogoblin. Chemotherapy groups are defined in supplementary box A of reference 1.