Table 2.

Actual predicted number using time-series model and percentage change of pathologic specimens received and malignant lesions in 2020

		Pathologic specimens received					Malignant lesions
		Total	Colorectal	Lung	Breast	Prostate	Total	Colorectal	Lung	Breast	Prostate
Model type		Winters' additive	Winters' additive	Winters' additive	Simple seasonal	Simple seasonal	Winters' additive	Simple seasonal	Winters' additive	Simple seasonal	Winters' additive
Jan	Actual	41,445	4928	8407	1589	761	3275	460	626	315	176
	predicted*	47,809	5517	9432	1649	840	3646	530	648	338	211
	% change	–13.31	–10.67	–10.87	–3.63	–9.46	–10.19	–13.23	–3.46	–6.68	–16.52
Feb	Actual	23,752	2013	5676	1145	294	2664	383	527	260	88
	predicted	41,987	4917	8731	1417	759	3146	443	605	260	183
	% change	–43.43	–59.06	–34.99	–19.21	–61.29	–15.31	–13.58	–12.86	0.04	–51.87
Mar	Actual	30,195	2413	6973	1389	364	3277	452	643	293	131
	predicted	50,780	5839	10,195	1669	862	3767	551	691	330	216
	% change	–40.54	–58.67	–31.6	–16.77	–57.76	–13.01	–18.04	–6.96	–11.19	–39.30
Apr	Actual	29,019	2631	6348	1479	479	3062	388	571	317	150
	predicted	43,922	5060	8991	1470	702	3296	457	608	313	184
	% change	–33.93	–48.01	–29.4	0.62	–31.75	–7.09	–15.19	–6.10	1.31	–18.26
May	Actual	38,555	3932	7275	1610	525	3219	394	616	331	147
	predicted	48,415	5612	9764	1621	792	3622	512	674	317	192
	% change	–20.36	–29.93	–25.49	–0.69	–33.75	–11.14	–23.07	–8.66	4.34	–23.24
Jun	Actual	45,586	5103	8265	1846	713	3756	469	726	383	172
	predicted	46,994	5530	9238	1603	795	3562	494	629	321	200
	% change	–3	–7.71	–10.53	15.17	–10.37	5.46	–5.15	15.46	19.23	–14.07
Jul	Actual	41,172	4771	7440	1842	702	3752	517	678	357	160
	predicted	49,117	5727	9485	1677	786	3624	495	648	340	205
	% change	–16.18	–16.69	–21.56	9.83	–10.74	3.53	4.34	4.56	5.14	–21.76
Aug	Actual	34,541	3461	7175	1508	535	3258	428	693	315	149
	predicted	50,865	6118	9792	1783	832	3895	542	742	350	199
	% change	–32.09	–43.43	–26.73	–15.42	–35.71	–16.35	–21.06	–6.66	–9.89	–24.94
Sep	Actual	43,827	5233	8325	1738	683	3722	473	659	368	163
	predicted	46,707	5507	8973	1654	810	3869	491	720	347	207
	% change	–6.17	–4.97	–7.22	5.09	–15.66	–3.80	–3.63	–8.53	6.08	–21.07
Oct	Actual	39,128	4423	6896	1434	603	3529	461	643	320	171
	predicted	45,360	5156	8184	1549	782	3907	486	712	371	203
	% change	–13.74	–14.22	–15.74	–7.42	–22.9	–9.68	–5.18	–9.66	–13.8	–15.83
Nov	Actual	46,093	5286	7313	1618	758	3970	482	674	373	209
	predicted	46,837	5357	8445	1609	824	4093	534	716	407	224
	% change	–1.59	–1.32	–13.41	0.57	–8.02	–3.01	–9.76	–5.92	–8.25	–6.49
Dec	Actual	42,140	4761	7404	1558	732	4066	503	746	425	223
	predicted	43,106	4812	8386	1454	710	3644	474	651	337	195
	% change	–2.24	–1.07	–11.71	7.16	3.08	11.57	6.16	14.63	26.15	14.26
Model Fit statistics	Stationary R2	0.8571	0.8818	0.7396	0.8777	0.7648	0.8785	0.8687	0.8758	0.8829	0.7981
	RMSE	1913.30	243.53	410.08	92.59	47.32	171.83	37.1	46.56	22.75	15.41
	MAE	1468.69	194.86	299.53	72.83	36.45	126.06	29.49	34.99	18.26	12.42
	MaxAPE	10.72	10.71	11.97	11.84	11.96	13.72	21.46	17.43	17.7	21.93
	MaxAE	4319.55	534.00	966.20	191.51	87.22	448.33	88.86	109.73	52.93	28.72
	Normalized BIC	15.41	11.29	12.33	9.26	7.91	10.59	7.43	7.98	6.45	5.77

Abbreviations: BIC = Bayesian information criterion; MAE = mean absolute error; MaxAE = maximum absolute error; MaxAPE = maximum absolute percentage error; RMSE = root mean square error.

^⁎Predicted values were rounded to nearest integer, and percentage changes were based on the full digits of the predicted value.