Table 3.
Univariable and multivariable associations between predictors and death within 28 days OR with 95% CIs for separate variables (columns ‘univariable’), for a model with all available predictors (columns ‘full model’) and for a model with only the six strongest predictors (columns ‘selected model’)
| Predictor | Contrast | Univariable | Full model | Selected model | COPE | ||||||
| OR | 95% CI | Wald | OR | 95% CI | Wald | OR | 95% CI | Wald | OR | ||
| Month | ≥April vs <April | 2.57 | 2.16 to 3.05 | 114 | 1.99 | 1.61 to 2.47 | 39 | 2.06 | 1.68 to 2.52 | 49 | 1.96 |
| Sex | Male vs female | 1.37 | 1.15 to 1.63 | 13 | 1.12 | 0.9 to 1.39 | 1 | ||||
| Age (years) | 80 vs 58 | 3.07 | 2.63 to 3.58 | 201 | 3.16 | 2.56 to 3.91 | 113 | 2.95 | 2.42 to 3.6 | 112 | 2.74 |
| BMI (kg/m²) | 35 vs 25 | 1.07 | 0.89 to 1.28 | 1 | 1.09 | 0.9 to 1.34 | 1 | ||||
| HR (bpm) | 103 vs 78 | 1.16 | 1.05 to 1.29 | 8 | 1.19 | 0.97 to 1.45 | 3 | ||||
| SBP (mm Hg) | 150 vs 118 | 0.76 | 0.65 to 0.89 | 12 | 0.86 | 0.73 to 1.01 | 3 | ||||
| RR (/min) | 23 vs 16 | 1.98 | 1.77 to 2.21 | 150 | 1.63 | 1.34 to 1.99 | 24 | 1.91 | 1.63 to 2.23 | 64 | 1.82 |
| Saturation (%) | 97.5 vs 94 | 0.61 | 0.52 to 0.72 | 37 | 0.77 | 0.65 to 0.9 | 10 | ||||
| Temperature (°C) | 38 vs 37 | 1.16 | 1.02 to 1.32 | 5 | 1.05 | 0.87 to 1.27 | 0 | ||||
| CRP (mg/L) | 118 vs 10 | 2.76 | 2.35 to 3.25 | 149 | 1.54 | 1.22 to 1.93 | 14 | 1.57 | 1.27 to 1.93 | 18 | 1.52 |
| LDH (U/L) | 322 vs 200 | 2.17 | 1.99 to 2.36 | 309 | 1.83 | 1.62 to 2.06 | 99 | 1.85 | 1.66 to 2.05 | 127 | 1.77 |
| Leucocytes (×109/L) | 12.7 vs 6.7 | 1.01 | 0.92 to 1.11 | 0 | 0.88 | 0.75 to 1.02 | 3 | ||||
| Lymphocytes (×109/L) | 1.6 vs 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.6 to 0.75 | 48 | 1.03 | 0.9 to 1.19 | 0 | ||||
| Albumin (g/L) | 42 vs 36 | 0.58 | 0.53 to 0.62 | 191 | 0.8 | 0.71 to 0.9 | 14 | 0.77 | 0.69 to 0.86 | 21 | 0.78 |
| Bicarbonate (mmol/L) | 25.9 vs 21.4 | 0.71 | 0.65 to 0.78 | 54 | 0.81 | 0.71 to 0.92 | 10 | ||||
| Creatinine (µmol/L) | 111 vs 66 | 1.58 | 1.46 to 1.71 | 133 | 0.85 | 0.72 to 1 | 4 | ||||
| Eosinophils (×109/L) | 0.1 vs 0.004 | 0.77 | 0.64 to 0.93 | 7 | 1.08 | 0.9 to 1.3 | 1 | ||||
| MCV (fL) | 94 vs 87 | 1.18 | 1.08 to 1.29 | 14 | 1.1 | 0.99 to 1.23 | 3 | ||||
| Monocytes (×109/L) | 0.95 vs 0.44 | 0.84 | 0.74 to 0.96 | 7 | 1.08 | 0.87 to 1.35 | 1 | ||||
| Neutrophils (×109/L) | 9 vs 2.2 | 0.97 | 0.88 to 1.07 | 0 | 0.94 | 0.82 to 1.08 | 1 | ||||
| Sodium (mmol/L) | 140 vs 135 | 0.98 | 0.96 to 1.01 | 1 | 1.03 | 0.98 to 1.09 | 1 | ||||
| Urea (mmol/L) | 9.7 vs 4.6 | 2.48 | 2.24 to 2.76 | 291 | 1.79 | 1.43 to 2.24 | 26 | 1.61 | 1.42 to 1.83 | 53 | 1.56 |
Variable importance is expressed with the Wald statistic (columns ‘Wald’). The ORs of the final model are based on the selected model, with a uniform shrinkage factor of 0.93 (column ‘COPE’). Associations are based on 5831 patients of whom 629 died within 28 days.
BMI, body mass index; COPE, COVID-19 outcome prediction in the emergency department; CRP, C reactive protein; HR, heart rate; LDH, lactic dehydrogenase; RR, respiratory rate; SBP, systolic blood pressure.