Figure 1.

Diagram summarizing the three major steps describing our framework for inferring parasite sharing networks under current and forecasted patterns of host co-occurrence. The first step (a) uses species distribution modelling techniques to forecast host distributions under future climate. These distributions inform co-occurrence among hosts. The second step (b) models Sh^Dx_ij, or the probability of each pair of hosts i and j sharing a given parasite Dx. For each parasite, models fit the relationships of observed pairwise parasite sharing against phylogenetic, trait and geographic proxies. The third step (c) combines host co-occurrences (thresholded or probabilistic) with host parasite sharing probabilities to generate both current and future predictions of probabilistic parasite sharing networks mediated by host co-occurrence. Comparing future versus current networks can inform about potential impacts of climate change on network structure, on the emergence of novel interactions, or locations where local networks may experience an increase in parasites. (Online version in colour.)