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. 2021 Aug 9;37:100480. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100480

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© 2021 The Author(s)

Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

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Fig. 4 — Change in the number of B.1.1.7 variants and in the number of all cases through time for Switzerland. Based on the average reproductive number R_c for Switzerland estimated for the time period 01 January 2021-17 January 2021 (i.e. prior to the tightening of measures on 18 January 2021) and the transmission fitness advantage f_c for the same time period, we plot the expected number of B.1.1.7 variants (blue) and the expected number of non-B.1.1.7 variants (green) under the continuous model. The model is initialized on Jan. 1 with the total number of cases and the estimated number of B.1.1.7 cases on that day. This model is compared to data: The dark green line is the total number of confirmed cases (7-day average). The dark blue line is the estimated number of confirmed B.1.1.7 cases (7-day average); this number is the product of the total number of confirmed cases for a day by the proportion of the B.1.1.7 variant for that day. If the empirical data develops as the model, the dark blue line follows the upper end of the blue area and the dark green line follows the upper end of the green area.