Figure 3.

Model fit to all‐cause mortality data from the CASCADE Collaboration reported by Dunn et al. [28]. Unadjusted mortality rates used ${\phi }_4=1$ and were intended to fit observed rates closely. Adjusted rates used estimated values of ${\phi }_4$ that may account for mortality underestimation in the observed rates. Points show crude observed rates and model point estimates; whiskers show 95% exact Poisson confidence intervals on observed rates and 95% credible intervals on model estimates. Shaded regions show posterior predictive distributions on model estimates. Abbreviation: PY, person‐years.