Figure 3.

Clustering of states and infection dynamics. The clustering at the county level (cp. Fig. 2) yields three groups of German states with different infection dynamics—the northern (green), southwestern (blue), and eastern (purple) parts of the country. The three derivative graphs draw the cluster's weekly incidences per 100 000 population against the rate of change of the same. Links between single points denote the temporal evolution of these tuples. The straight-line relations, such as depicted for the October growth period (purple), in all plots indicate an exponential temporal evolution of the weekly incidences. In each of the three state clusters during the partial shutdown (green), this exponential growth collapses to non-exponential infection dynamics thereafter.