Table 2:

Integrated models related to polio eradication.

Integrated model description	Motivating questions	Analytical methods integrated	Publications that use or describe the integrated model	Software platform(s) used
Health economic model of US polio vaccination	* What are the historic and future health benefits of polio vaccination in the US? * How did cost-effectiveness ratios change over the course of the efforts? * How much does the choice of linear vs. dynamic model to estimate disease cases affect the results?	* Deterministic DEB modeling * Health economic modeling	(Thompson and Duintjer Tebbens 2006)	Mathematica
Health economic model of global post-eradication policies	* What is the best combination of policies after certification of global wild poliovirus eradication? * What are the expected benefits of polio eradication vs. control? * What are the historic and future health benefits of global polio eradication efforts? * What uncertainties most affect our ability to make decisions?	* Systems thinking * Deterministic DEB modeling * Decision analysis * Health economic modeling * Probabilistic and statistical risk analysis * Probabilistic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis	(Thompson and Duintjer Tebbens 2007; Duintjer Tebbens et al. 2008a; Thompson and Duintjer Tebbens 2008b; Thompson et al. 2008; Duintjer Tebbens et al. 2011; Thompson et al. 2015a)	Mathematica (model), Vensim (diagrams and interactive model application)
Stockpile optimization framework	* What are the different ways to frame an emergency outbreak response vaccine stockpile optimization problem (after cessation of regular use of the vaccine)? * What is the optimal stockpile composition over time given a known demand for outbreak response vaccine?	* Systems thinking * Deterministic DEB modeling * Linear programming	(Duintjer Tebbens et al. 2010)	Mathematica (model), Vensim (diagrams)
Global model for long-term poliovirus risk management	* What is the best global polio immunization policy for 2013–2052? * What are the costs and benefits of different risk management policies (e.g., use of antiviral drugs, outbreak response strategies, synchronization of OPV cessation, intensification of OPV use prior to cessation, development of new poliovirus vaccines)? * What are the vaccine needs for different endgame strategies? * What is the optimal stockpile composition over time given an uncertain demand for outbreak response vaccine? * What are the most important sources of risk? * What are key outstanding uncertainties?	* Systems thinking * Deterministic DEB modeling (informed by semi-structured expert judgment and systematic review) * Decision analysis * Health economic modeling * Discrete-event simulation * Probabilistic risk analysis * Probabilistic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis * Optimization (iterative)	(Duintjer Tebbens et al. 2015a; Duintjer Tebbens and Thompson 2015a; Thompson and Duintjer Tebbens 2015b; Duintjer Tebbens et al. 2016b; Duintjer Tebbens et al. 2016d; Duintjer Tebbens and Thompson 2016a; Duintjer Tebbens and Thompson 2016b; Duintjer Tebbens and Thompson 2017a; Duintjer Tebbens and Thompson 2017d; Thompson and Duintjer Tebbens 2017a)	Java (model), Amazon Web Services (execution of Java model)
Health economic analysis of travel vaccination requirements	* What are the costs and benefits of imposing temporary recommendations for vaccination on countries with wild poliovirus transmission?	* Systems thinking * Health economic modeling * Discrete-event simulation * Probabilistic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis	(Duintjer Tebbens and Thompson 2017c)	Java