Figure 1. The transmission cycle of Ross River virus, a multi-host, multi-vector arbovirus, and the components our framework uses to model this transmission cycle.

The first requirements for transmission are physiologically competent hosts that become infected (A: ‘proportion viremic’) and are able to replicate the virus to suitable levels to infect vectors (A: ‘titer profiles’) and vector species that can become infected (B: ‘Mosquito infection probability’) and eventually are able to transmit virus (B: ‘Mosquito transmission probability’). Physiologically competent hosts and vectors contribute to the transmission of the virus through a continuous cycle of transmission, which can be viewed from two perspectives, either starting with an infected host or starting with an infected vector; regardless of perspective, a single complete cycle contains a single set of physiological and ecological components. Each of these components are used in our framework in one of three ways: statistical models fit to empirical data, from which uncertainty is propagated into the final calculations of transmission (boxes outlined in black); raw empirical data (boxes outlined in blue); and point estimates (boxes outlined in red). Italic bold numbers and text next to the boxes outlined in black describe, in brief, the type of statistical model used to estimate each component (GLMM stands for generalized linear mixed model). Details on all components are provided in the Materials and Methods, Supplementary files, and Appendix Figures that are listed next to framework components; associated raw Source Data files are also listed.