TABLE 3.
Relationship between OxyContin misuse and 2017 overdose death rates from parametric model
| Types of overdoses | Heroin | Synthetic | Natural/semisynthetic | All opioids | Cocaine | Psychostimulants | All overdoses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Main effects | |||||||
| OxyContin effect | 8.803a (3.101) |
20.018a (5.355) |
4.430 (3.709) |
28.319a (7.349) |
11.041a (2.563) |
−0.751 (1.138) |
31.462a (9.574) |
| B. Add covariates | |||||||
| OxyContin effect | 11.676a (3.653) |
26.604a (8.704) |
3.914 (4.683) |
36.510a (9.946) |
16.545a (3.665) |
−1.761 (1.575) |
41.088a (13.314) |
| C. Using OxyContin supply as measure of exposure | |||||||
| OxyContin effect | 2.613 (2.431) |
10.159a (3.370) |
0.821 (1.612) |
10.956c (5.703) |
4.160b (2.038) |
0.329 (0.355) |
15.115* (7.768) |
| D. Using 2004–05 nonmedical OxyContin use | |||||||
| OxyContin effect | 8.155a (2.813) |
19.340a (4.996) |
6.757b (2.834) |
25.414a (6.874) |
8.260a (3.066) |
−1.898c (1.056) | 25.793a (8.087) |
| E. Main effects (repeated) with p-values from permutation-style test | |||||||
| OxyContin effect [p-value] | 8.803a [0.016] |
20.018a [0.001] |
4.43 [0.464] |
28.319a [0.003] |
11.041a [0.008] |
−0.751 [0.707] |
31.462a [0.009] |
Note: N = 510. Standard errors in parentheses are adjusted for state-level clustering for panels A–D. Outcomes are overdose deaths per 100,000. All regressions in clude state and year fixed effects. Pre-reformulation OxyContin misuse rates (2004–09) are interacted with a linear trend and permitted to have a level and slope shift in 2011. We also control for nonmedical pain reliever use interacted in the same manner. The sample includes years 2006–09, 2011–17. We report the implied estimated effect for 2017. Covariates in panel B are defined as averages for 2004–09 and include log of population size, fraction white, fraction foreign born, and fraction ages 25–44. The covariates are also interacted in the same manner as the misuse variables are. Panel E replicates panel A but reports p-values from a permutation test. P-values are reported in brackets. We randomly, without replacement, assigned misuse rate pairs (jointly) to different states and then estimated the t-statistic associated with the OxyContin misuse rate. The t-statistic for the true sample was then compared with this distribution of 999 placebo t-statistics.
1%,
5%,
10% statistical significance.