Table 3:
The Effect of Social Connectedness on Murder, 1970–2009, Addressing Threats to Empirical Strategy
| Dependent variable: Number of murders reported to police | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
| Log HHI, Southern black migrants | −0.245 (0.064) | −0.239 (0.063) | −0.207 (0.056) | −0.247 (0.057) | −0.256 (0.061) | −0.209 (0.059) | −0.223 (0.065) | −0.212 (0.069) | −0.180 (0.055) |
| Log population and log land area | x | x | x | x | x | x | x | x | x |
| Log number, Southern black migrants | x | x | x | x | x | x | x | x | x |
| 1920–1960 covariates | x | x | x | x | x | x | x | x | x |
| State-year fixed effects | x | x | x | x | x | x | x | x | x |
| Percent black and percent female | x | x | |||||||
| Age and education covariates | x | x | |||||||
| Economic covariates | x | x | |||||||
| Log HHI, Southern white migrants | x | x | |||||||
| Log number, Southern white migrants | x | x | |||||||
| Log HHI, immigrants | x | x | |||||||
| Log number, immigrants | x | x | |||||||
| Racial fragmentation, percent Hispanic, percent foreign, English language skills | x | x | |||||||
| Birth county covariates | x | x | |||||||
| Share of Southern black migrants influenced by birth town migration network | x | x | |||||||
| Pseudo R2 | 0.823 | 0.825 | 0.836 | 0.832 | 0.827 | 0.832 | 0.824 | 0.823 | 0.840 |
| N (city-years) | 8,345 | 8,345 | 8,345 | 8,345 | 8,345 | 8,345 | 8,345 | 8,345 | 8,345 |
| Cities | 224 | 224 | 224 | 224 | 224 | 224 | 224 | 224 | 224 |
Notes: Table displays estimates of equation (1). 1920–1960 covariates are log population, percent black, and log manufacturing employment. Age and education covariates are percent age 5–17, 18–64, and 65+, percent with high school degree, and percent with college degree. Economic covariates are log median family income, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and log manufacturing employment. Racial fragmentation is one minus an HHI of racial population shares. English language skills are the share of people age 5+ who speak only English at home and the share who speak English well or very well (including those who only speak English). Birth county covariates are migrant-weighted averages of the black farm ownership rate, black literacy rate, black population density, percent black, and percent rural, all measured in the 1920 Census, plus Rosenwald school exposure. Column 8 includes an estimate of the share of migrants that chose their destination because of their birth town migration network. We estimate this variable using a structural model of location decisions, as described in the text. Standard errors, clustered at the city level, are in parentheses. Sources: Aaronson and Mazumder (2011), Duke SSA/Medicare data, Haines and ICPSR (2010), United States Bureau of the Census (2008), United States Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation (2005)