Table 4.

Number of patients referred to hospital in three simulation models—1000 runs of each model assuming a different staffing structure (standard mix of GPs/ENPs, ENPs only, highest referrers removed from service)

Model version	Scenario for referral percentages	Min	Lower 95%	Mean	Upper 95%	Max
i	current staffing model	119	135	165*	197	233
ii	ENP only (no GPs)	97	117	144	173	206
iii	Truncated—highest referral rates removed	88	102	129	156	184

*The mean number of patients referred per week from the average of the simulations is higher than the arithmetic mean of referrals from all the empirical data (154), due to model assumptions of full shift working.

ENP, emergency nurse practitioner; GPs, general practitioners.