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. 2021 Sep 25;41:A93–A104. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.09.037

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© 2021 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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Fig. 1 — Model validation. (A) Monthly incidence of cVDPV2 observed cases (red line) in Pakistan and Afghanistan between 2010 and 2016 and simulated cases (boxplots, across 100 simulations). Inset maps display spatial distribution of observed and simulated cumulative cVDPV2 cases between 2010 and 2016. (B-D) Model calibration of Diamir, Pakistan cVDPV2 outbreak (between 01 July 2019 to 29 February 2020), including (B) log likelihood profile for R₀ local and the factor determining the relative between- district coefficient compared to within-district transmission. (C) Monthly observed and simulated cumulative cVDPV2 cases and (D) spatial distribution of observed and simulated cases.