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. 2021 Sep 25;41:A93–A104. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.09.037

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© 2021 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

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Fig. 2 — Forward simulation of cVDPV2 outbreak originating in Diamir, Pakistan, assuming no vaccination response (since March 2020) based on varying assumptions of the impact of population movement changes on poliovirus transmission due to COVID-19 lockdown. (A) Serotype-2 mucosal and humoral immunity in March 2020 based on simulations from the model. (B) Proportion of districts with > 400 cVDPV2 infections (corresponding to 1 cVDPV2 case) with no response (since March 2020) and various assumptions of poliovirus transmission from changes in transmission due to lockdown measures (typical, modest reduction, substantial reduction, complete halt) between March-June 2020 and March-November 2020). (C) Maps displaying the number of cVDPV2 infections over time under the various assumptions of movement patterns between March-June 2020. (D) Distribution of cumulative number of cVDPV2 cases between July 2019 to November 2020 across the assumptions of movement on transmission.