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. 2021 Sep 25;41:A93–A104. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.09.037

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© 2021 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

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Fig. 5 — Forward simulation of cVDPV2 outbreak originating in Diamir, Pakistan, considering impact of proposed vaccination response. (A) Estimated SIA coverage. (B) Geographic scope and number of proposed SIAs. (C) Impact of proposed SIAs in proportion of districts with > 400 cVDPV2 infections under-estimated and reduced SIA coverage and considering responses with and without NIDs. (D) Maps displaying the number of cVDPV2 infections over time under the proposed response and modest reduction in transmission between March-June 2020. (E) Distribution of cumulative number of cVDPV2 cases between July 2019 to November 2020 (top panel) and July 2019 to February 2021 (bottom panel) based on the different assumptions of movement and vaccination strategies.