Fig. 6.

Comparing outcome predictions using the dynamic carrying capacity model with the prediction pipeline vs volume reduction alone. (A) Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) plots summarizing the pipeline results from the 39 leave-one-out studies to predict locoregional control and disease-free survival for each left-out patient, with an increasing number of weekly measurements being considered. Each marker shows the performance of 1 simulation of 500 predictions each (10 simulations total); the gray unit line indicates the chance line in the ROC space. Standard deviations for all predictions were <0.01 (exact values are given in Table E3 in the Supplement). (B) ROC analysis of prediction results using volume reduction relative to the start of radiation therapy (RT) for weeks 1 to 4 of RT. Error bars indicate the standard deviations (exact values are given in Table E5) of the sensitivity and specificity of the 39 leave-one-out predictions derived from points maximizing the Youden J statistic derived from individual ROC analyses (Fig. E8). (C) Comparison of the Youden J statistic for the model predictions (teal) and predictions using volume reduction alone (black) at different weeks of RT. Error bars indicate standard deviation values (exact values are given in Tables E3 and E5). Standard deviations < 0.05 are not shown. All comparisons are statistically distinct (P < .05; exact values are given in Table E7), except for DFS for weeks 3 and 4 of RT.