Table 11.

Comparison of accident death toll prediction effects.

Year	Actual value	Established model prediction	Absolute residual	Relative error absolute value	GM (1,1) model prediction	Absolute residual	Relative error absolute value
2015	9	7.88	1.12	12.4%	9	–	–
2016	0	0.04	0.04	–	3.54	3.54	–
2017	5	5.30	0.30	6.0%	5.56	0.56	11.2%
2018	9	9.05	0.05	0.6%	8.75	0.25	2.8%
2019	13	12.64	0.36	2.8%	13.76	0.76	5.9%
2020	18	16.99	1.01	5.6%	21.64	3.64	20.22%
Mean error	–	–	0.48	5.48%	–	1.75	10.03%