Table 1.

Estimate of the death rate $\widehat{\theta }$, restriction rate $\widehat{\gamma }$, hyper parameter $\widehat{\varphi }$, balance factor, # days $n$, average # deaths $\overline{y}$, posterior mean, posterior variance, and vulnerability to death. For readability, note that 2/1/2020 refers 1 February 2020.

Scheme	$\widehat{\mathit{\theta }}$	$\widehat{\mathit{\gamma }}$	$\widehat{\mathit{\varphi }}$	Balance Factor	N (# Days)	$\overline{\mathit{y}}$	Posterior Mean	Posterior Variance	Vulnerability to Death
1/1/2020	No	data			31
2/1/2020	No	data			29
3/1/2020	6.4112	0.15	26.637	0.008	31	177.175	6.443	0.008	8.6852 × 10−5
4/1/2020	17.945	0.055	71.942	0.003	30	1308.96	17.98	0.008	1.23654 × 10−5
5/1/2020	23.98	0.04	32.262	0.022	31	797.542	24.01	0.024	2.04433 × 10−5
6/1/2020	18.02	0.053	20.237	0.04	30	382.745	18.05	0.028	4.22952 × 10−5
7/1/2020	12.32	0.08	50.52	0.005	31	634.551	12.35	0.008	2.51761 × 10−5
8/1/2020	13.177	0.074	43.448	0.007	31	585.706	13.21	0.01	2.73495 × 10−5
9/1/2020	14.36	0.067	25.115	0.021	30	375.039	14.39	0.018	4.28503 × 10−5
10/1/2020	20.965	0.046	21.837	0.04	31	478.846	21	0.031	3.39436 × 10−5
11/1/2020	32.672	0.03	30.309	0.033	30	1023.13	32.7	0.035	1.60284 × 10−5
12/1/2020	36.245	0.027	51.061	0.013	31	1885.27	36.28	0.023	8.71234 × 10−6
1/1/2021	28.586	0.034	69.174	0.006	31	2004.06	28.62	0.014	8.1642 × 10−6
2/1/2021	19.72	0.05	44.59	0.009	28	899.385	19.75	0.014	1.80436 × 10−5
3/1/2021	16.174	0.06	25.94	0.022	31	435.788	16.21	0.02	3.70254 × 10−5
4/1/2021	15.92	0.06	21.478	0.032	30	357.922	15.95	0.024	4.50578 × 10−5
5/1/2021	15.191	0.062	17.782	0.043	31	285.28	15.22	0.027	5.64437 × 10−5
6/1/2021	10.043	0.092	11.648	0.063	30	127.02	10.07	0.027	0.000124612