Table 5.

Statistical contingency scores for the three best performing weather-based models during the testing phase. M1–13: model #1 to model #13, respectively. POD: probability of Cercospora leaf spot detection (best score = 100%); FAR: false alarm ratio (best score = 0%); CSI: critical success index (best score = 100%). The 3 best performing models are underlined (M1, M2 and M3). All the POD, FAR, and CSI values for model M14 were 0 (no simulation achieved based on the combined weather conditions defined for that model); the statistics were therefore not presented.

	M1	M2	M3	M4	M5	M6	M7	M8	M9	M10	M11	M12	M13
	Probability of detection (POD)
Avernas 2018	100	73	80	75	75	75	33	33	33	22	20	20	20
Briffoeil 2020	100	94	95	88	88	88	72	73	73	36	36	36	38
Herstappe 2019	100	92	92	100	100	100	56	56	56	25	22	22	22
Meux 2019	100	83	83	50	50	50	44	44	44	29	29	29	25
Wagnéllie 2020	100	95	95	54	54	54	69	69	69	36	36	36	22
Waret 2018	91	82	80	90	73	73	43	38	38	29	29	29	43
Villers-le-Peuplier 2018	100	100	100	75	75	75	46	46	46	22	22	22	22
Rutter 2020	100	100	100	29	29	29	91	91	91	14	14	14	0
Mean—All sites	99	90	91	70	68	68	57	56	56	27	26	26	24
	False alarm ratio (FAR)
Avernas 2018	14	20	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Briffoeil 2020	8	10	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Herstappe 2019	14	14	8	0	0	0	17	17	17	0	0	0	0
Meux 2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Wagnéllie 2020	10	10	10	13	13	13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Waret 2018	0	11	11	0	0	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Villers-le-Peuplier 2018	20	20	20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Rutter 2020	6	6	6	50	50	50	10	10	10	50	50	50	0
Mean—All sites	9	11	10	8	8	9	3	3	3	6	6	6	0
	Critical success index (CSI)
Avernas 2018	86	62	73	75	75	75	33	33	33	22	20	20	20
Briffoeil 2020	92	85	81	88	88	88	72	73	73	36	36	36	38
Herstappe 2019	86	80	86	60	50	50	50	50	50	25	22	22	22
Meux 2019	100	83	83	50	50	50	44	44	44	29	29	29	25
Wagnéllie 2020	90	86	86	50	50	50	69	69	69	36	36	36	22
Waret 2018	91	75	73	90	73	67	43	38	38	29	29	29	43
Villers-le-Peuplier 2018	80	80	80	75	75	75	46	46	46	22	22	22	22
Rutter 2020	94	94	94	22	22	22	83	83	83	13	13	13	0
Mean—All sites	90	81	82	64	60	60	55	55	55	27	26	26	24