Table 1.

Average classification performance in terms of P(Outbreak|Class) (i.e., probability of outbreak (Yes/No) given the assigned risk class, L) and P(Class|Outbreak) (i.e., probability of the assigned risk class given the outbreak) at the low action-thresholds (predicted risk = 0.015).

Low Risk Group. P(Class = L) = 0.648
P(Class = L|Outbreak = Yes)	P(Class ≠ L|Outbreak = Yes)	P(Class = L|Outbreak = No)	P(Class ≠ L|Outbreak = No)
0.23	0.77	0.73	0.27
P(Outbreak = Yes|Class = L)	P(Outbreak = No|Class = L)	P(Outbreak = Yes|Class ≠ L)	P(Outbreak = No|Class ≠ L)
0.06	0.94	0.37	0.63