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. 2021 Sep 27;95:105087. doi: 10.1016/j.meegid.2021.105087

Table 1.

The model outputs are presented together with the reported data. The predicted number of cumulative cases produced by the model over time for three different epidemic mitigation scenarios for three initiation dates together with the corresponding 90% prediction intervals.

Scenario June 1,2020 July 1,2020 August 1,2020
Real Data 24,012 44,998 71,056
April 12, 2020 23,724 (19,093;28,250) 38,932 (29,181;48,782) 57,810 (41,864;75,029)
April 19, 2020 27,511 (22,681;32,872) 46,193 (36,238;57,100) 69,358 (50,642; 88,407)
April 26, 2020 32,220 (26,016;38,645) 55,141 (41,974;69,992) 84,227 (63,992;109,069)