Table D.2.
Model variables and parameters.
Variable/Parameter | Description | Estimation |
---|---|---|
Variables | ||
(Non-quarantined) susceptible, exposed and infectious individuals | ||
Self-quarantined (social-distanced) susceptible, exposed and infectious individuals | ||
Contact-traced susceptible, exposed and infectious individuals | ||
Isolated reported cases | ||
Currently quarantined contact-traced cases | ||
Parameters | ||
Transmission rate (for unmonitored infectious) | 1,2, | |
Proportion of (non-quarantined,self-quarantined, already initially traced) contacts traced (or remaining traced) | 3, | |
self-quarantine (social distancing or lockdown) factor | 3 | |
probability of transmission upon contact | 3 | |
Reduction in susceptibility for self-quarantined, contact-traced susceptible individuals | 2, 0 | |
Rate of exit from self-, contact-traced quarantine | 2, 14 (days) | |
Fraction of susceptible individuals who return to “social-distanced” (self-quarantined) after completing contact-traced protocol | 1 | |
Average time to infectiousness (includes pre-symptomatic) | (He et al., 2020) | |
Average infectious period (time to isolation) of non-quarantined, self-quarantined, contact-traced | , , (Bi et al., 2020) | |
Total initial susceptible population 4 |
2. Fixed at 0 in simplified model, fit in full model (see Table D.3).
4. Population or aggregated populations of provinces in China (N.B. of Statistics of China, 2019).