Figure 2.

Emission pathways of livestock CH₄ (a(i)) and net CO₂ (a(ii)) consistent with limiting warming to 1.5° with no or limited overshoot, and modelled temperature outcomes (b). The default emission pathways (solid lines) are the same as in figure 1. The dotted lines are for a business-as-usual scenario with a roughly 30% increase in livestock CH₄ emissions by 2050 (relative to 2010), and net CO₂ emissions adjusted such that the modelled temperature change remains virtually identical. Shaded and hashed areas in a(ii) indicate the remaining carbon budget for those pathways (starting in 2018; for details, see text). (b) Temperature responses, including for a scenario where livestock CH₄ emissions are not reduced and emissions from all other sectors remain unchanged (dashed line). Temperature has been modelled using MAGICC 6.3 [44], using the median of a probabilistic set of 600 runs. Observed temperature change to 2020 is shown for illustration (crosses), using 1986–2005 as reference level, using HadCRUT5 [50]. (Online version in colour.)