Table 1.
Transmissibility and immune escape properties for putative Variants of Concern (VOCs). In the main analysis we consider four VOCs (VOC MT, VOC E, VOC LT + E, VOC E + LH), with results for two additional VOCs (VOC Ev and VOC Ei) presented in the Supplementary Information. For those previously infected by either the resident variant or the VOC, we assumed the prior-infection efficacies towards the other variant were identical. Note that in the age-structured SARS-CoV-2 transmission model we also applied efficacy scalings upon both symptomatic disease and hospitalisations (severe disease).
| Scenario | Description | Relative transmissibility | Proportional vaccine efficacy | Proportional prior-infection efficacy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VOC MT | More transmissible, no immune escape | 1.5 | 1 | 1 |
| VOC E | Equally transmissible, immune escape to vaccination and prior infection | 1 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| VOC E+LH | As VOC E, except efficacies against hospitalisations unadjusted | 1 | 0.75a | 0.75a |
| VOC LT+E | Less transmissible, immune escape to vaccination and prior infection | 0.8 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| VOC Ev | Equally transmissible, immune escape to vaccination only | 1 | 0.75 | 1 |
| VOC Ei | Equally transmissible, immune escape to prior infection only | 1 | 1 | 0.75 |
aVOC E+LH displays full efficacy against hospitalisations.