. 2021 Sep 30;12:5730. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7

Table 2.

Initial conditions, epidemiological and vaccination parameter assumptions for the parsimonious SARS-CoV-2 transmission model.

Parameter	Baseline value	Source
Proportion of population vaccinated with AstraZeneca vaccine	0.355	Approximate proportion of England population vaccinated with the AstraZeneca vaccine by 17th May 2021 (from the National Immunisation Management Service)
Proportion of population vaccinated with Pfizer/Moderna	0.185	Approximate proportion of England population vaccinated with Pfizer/Moderna vaccines by 17th May 2021 (from the National Immunisation Management Service)
Proportion initially recovered	0.26	Mid-May England national average estimate of proportion recovered. From University of Warwick SARS-CoV-2 transmission model⁵⁹.
Proportion initially infected	0.0009	England central prevalence estimate (0.09%) from ONS infection study, 9th May–15th May 2021⁶⁷.
Recovery rate (I- > R)	0.4 days⁻¹	Estimate from Warwick model
Rate from E- > I	0.3 days⁻¹	Estimate from Warwick model
R excluding immunity for England	[2.41,3.51]	Central estimate from Warwick model from roadmap Step 3 modelling³⁶. Associated time intervals: [17th May–20th June 2021, 21st June 2021 onward]
Maximum proportion of population vaccinated	0.785 × 0.95	Product of percentage aged 18+ (approximately 78.5%⁵⁸) and assumed final coverage (95%)
AstraZeneca/non-AstraZeneca vaccine ratio	60%/40%	Assumed mixture as in⁵⁷