Table 3.
Efficacy assumptions against the resident variants and for our illustrative Variants of Concern (VOCs) with immune ecscape (VOC E and VOC LT + E, with efficacies for these VOCs stated in parentheses). We computed the efficacies against VOCs as the product of the proportional vaccine efficacy and the efficacy against the resident variants. For a summary table of source studies, see Supplementary Table 1.
| Pfizer | AstraZeneca | Natural immunity | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficacy action | Dose 1 | Dose 2 | Dose 1 | Dose 2 | ||
| Parsimonious model | Infection | 75% (56%) | 65% (49%) | 100% (75%) | ||
| Age-structured model | Infection | 60% (45%) | 85% (64%) | 60% (45%) | 65% (49%) | 100% (75%) |
| Symptoms | 60% (54%) | 90% (81%) | 60% (54%) | 80% (72%) | 100% (90%) | |
| Hospitalisation | 80% (60%) | 90% (81%) | 80% (60%) | 90% (72%) | 100% (90%) | |