Table 2.

Relative risk (RR) comparing subjects in the top and bottom k% of predicted risks and proportion of cases explained by those at top k% of predicted risk.

Full model							Lite model
k		Risk in top k%a,b	Risk in bottom k%	RR	Proportion of cases explained by top k%	Risk in top k%a,b		Risk in bottom k%	RR	Proportion of cases explained by top k%
Cohort A
	5	0.676	0.148	4.56	0.112	0.691		0.158	4.37	0.113
	10	0.654	0.138	4.74	0.216	0.644		0.157	4.10	0.211
	20	0.579	0.145	4.00	0.382	0.581		0.153	3.79	0.381
	30	0.540	0.148	3.65	0.533	0.533		0.152	3.50	0.526
	40	0.489	0.152	3.20	0.644	0.479		0.158	3.03	0.630
	50	0.443	0.166	2.67	0.730	0.439		0.170	2.59	0.720
Cohort B
	5	0.214	0.000	Infinity	0.174	0.212		0.003	84.27	0.174
	10	0.200	0.001	158.20	0.327	0.216		0.008	28.38	0.352
	20	0.171	0.008	22.42	0.562	0.188		0.008	24.59	0.618
	30	0.148	0.009	16.57	0.727	0.155		0.008	19.21	0.763
	40	0.127	0.009	14.21	0.830	0.131		0.009	14.23	0.866
	50	0.111	0.010	10.94	0.916	0.111		0.011	10.37	0.912
Cohort C
	5	0.0201	0.0017	11.76	0.197	0.0210		0.0013	15.88	0.207
	10	0.0149	0.0021	6.98	0.293	0.0158		0.0012	12.95	0.310
	20	0.0109	0.0023	4.67	0.427	0.0118		0.0021	5.71	0.462
	30	0.0090	0.0030	2.99	0.528	0.0097		0.0027	3.57	0.573
	40	0.0075	0.0033	2.27	0.590	0.0084		0.0026	3.20	0.656
	50	0.0069	0.0033	2.09	0.678	0.0074		0.0028	2.63	0.725
Cohort D
	5	0.0067	0.00000	Infinity	0.325	0.0068		0.00000	Infinity	0.333
	10	0.0047	0.00002	218.02	0.457	0.0047		0.00006	73.67	0.463
	20	0.0033	0.00011	30.30	0.635	0.0032		0.00009	36.75	0.616
	30	0.0026	0.00014	18.74	0.746	0.0027		0.00011	23.38	0.784
	40	0.0021	0.00016	13.17	0.828	0.0022		0.00013	16.68	0.874
	50	0.0018	0.00022	8.35	0.893	0.0019		0.00015	13.03	0.929

^a‘Top k%’ refers to top k% of predicted probability of outcome by XGboost.

^b‘Risk in top k%’ refers to the actual probability of the outcome (severe disease or fatality) within the patients belonging to the highest k% of predicted risks.