Table 1.

Estimated mean lead time (MLT), percent increase in incidence (overdiagnosis), and percent reduction in mortality for historical early detection strategies for all races and historical and intensified early detection strategies for Black men^a

Model	Ages, y	Race	Frequency	Biopsy, %	MLT	Overdiagnosis, %	Mortality reduction Estimate, % (95% CI)
FHCRC	40-84	All races	Historical	40	3.6	34.5	24.4 (9.1 to 37.1)
	40-84	Black	Historical	40	3.5	35.0	23.9 (8.9 to 36.5)
	40-84	Black	Annual	40	4.9	44.6	31.4 (12.1 to 46.4)
	40-84	Black	Annual	100	5.8	49.3	36.0 (14.2 to 52.3)
	55-69	All races	Historical	40	2.2	11.5	15.9 (5.8 to 25.0)
	55-69	Black	Historical	40	2.5	15.8	17.6 (6.4 to 27.5)
	55-69	Black	Annual	40	3.8	23.8	25.2 (9.5 to 38.2)
	50-69	Black	Annual	40	3.9	24.1	26.2 (9.9 to 39.5)
	45-69	Black	Annual	40	4.0	24.1	26.4 (10.0 to 39.9)
	55-69	Black	Annual	100	4.6	29.5	30.1 (11.5 to 44.8)
	50-69	Black	Annual	100	4.8	29.7	31.0 (11.9 to 46.0)
	45-69	Black	Annual	100	4.9	29.7	31.4 (12.1 to 46.4)
MISCAN	40-84	All races	Historical	40	2.7	32.3	20.4 (7.4 to 31.5)
	40-84	Black	Historical	40	2.8	31.9	21.1 (7.6 to 32.5)
	40-84	Black	Annual	40	4.1	40.4	29.0 (10.8 to 43.4)
	40-84	Black	Annual	100	5.0	46.2	34.3 (13.2 to 50.4)
	55-69	All races	Historical	40	2.5	14.0	18.6 (6.7 to 29.0)
	55-69	Black	Historical	40	2.6	17.1	19.5 (7.0 to 30.3)
	55-69	Black	Annual	40	3.9	26.6	27.6 (10.3 to 41.5)
	50-69	Black	Annual	40	4.0	26.8	28.2 (10.5 to 42.4)
	45-69	Black	Annual	40	4.0	26.8	28.7 (10.7 to 43.0)
	55-69	Black	Annual	100	5.0	34.5	33.9 (13.0 to 49.8)
	50-69	Black	Annual	100	5.1	34.6	34.6 (13.3 to 50.7)
	45-69	Black	Annual	100	5.2	34.6	35.1 (13.5 to 51.4)

^a CI = confidence interval; FHCRC = Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center; MISCAN = Erasmus Medical Center MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis.