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. 2021 Jun 19;188:1088–1108. doi: 10.1016/j.jebo.2021.06.016

Table 13.

Endogeneity estimation results (Volatility returns).

Variables Market Volatility
OLS
Fixed Effects
System GMM
Model (1) Model (2) Model (3) Model (4) Model (5) Model (6)
Volatility(t1) 0.187*** 0.056
[0.037] [0.078]
Volatility(t1) 0.007 0.018
[0.039] [0.046]
Δ Feverish 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.003* 0.003*
[0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.001] [0.001]
Constant 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.001***
[0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000]
Control variables NO YES NO YES NO YES
Obeservation 969 969 969 969 952 952
R-squared 0.02 0.27 0.04 0.30
AR (1) -2.299** -2.308**
AR (2) 0.876 0.247
Sargan test 12.61 12.38

Notes: Columns 2–3 report results based on OLS estimation, columns 4–5 report results based on the Fixed effects model, while columns 6–7 report estimation based on System GMM model. Sargan is a test of the over-identifying restrictions, while AR (1) and AR (2) are the Arellano-Bond tests for first-order and second-order correlation, respectively. *, **, and *** indicate 10%, 5%, and 1% significance level. Standard errors are reported in parentheses. Model (1), (3) and (5) report the baseline model without any control variables while the remaining models included the other determinants to reduce the omitted factors. Market volatility is calculated as the absolute value of stock returns. For completeness, we have also estimated the volatility with the GARCH(1,1) model and the results are qualitatively the same. Δ denotes the change (first difference) of Fear indexes. The list of control variables is calculated as the return for the iBoxx bond index, the gold prices, and the crude oil WTI prices