Fig. 5.

(left) Estimated posterior distributions for the effectivity of a contact at home (${\Omega }_{\text{home}}$), in the workplace (${\Omega }_{\text{work}}$) and for the sum of leisure activities, other activities and public transport (${\Omega }_{\text{rest}}$), (right) together with the resulting model prediction for the daily hospitalizations from March 15th, 2020 until July 14th, 2020 (right). The effectivity of school contacts could not be deduced during the first 2020 COVID-19 wave because schools were only re-opened very limited before their final closure on July 1st, 2020. Calibration performed using the daily hospitalizations in Belgium until: (a) 2020-04-04, (b) 2020-04-15, (c) 2020-05-01, (d) 2020-05-01, (e) 2020-06-01 and (f) 2020-07-01. Calibration data in black, validation data in red. Model predictions are accurate in all but the minimal calibration dataset (a). Monotonic convergence of the effectivity parameter posteriors is reached quickly after lockdown release on May 4th, 2020 (d–f).(For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)