Fig. 3.
Effect of community prevalence. The distributions of school transmission cases as a percentage of the school population when new cases are introduced at different average rates. In these simulations, all students are in school 5 d a week, and there is no proactive testing. (A and B) Outcomes for primary schools and secondary schools, respectively, with baseline transmission = 1.5. Black and orange lines represent median and 95th percentile outcomes, respectively. Under each jitter distribution, we list the percentage of simulations where more than 5% (gray dashed line) of the population are infected in school. (C and D) Outcomes for primary and secondary schools in scenarios with heightened transmission = 2.25 due to the predominance of a highly transmissible strain. (E and F) Heatmaps show the fraction of simulations where more than 5% of the student or teacher population are infected in primary and secondary schools, respectively, across a range of values and introduction rates.