Table 5.

Reclassification table among people with and without a major osteoporotic fracture event during follow-up

Models without selected metabolites	Models with selected metabolites
Model 1: Conventional risk factors alone	Model 2: Conventional risk factors + selected metabolites
Individuals who experience a major osteoporotic fracture event
Fracture risk	[0, 20%)	[20 %, 1]	Total
[0, 20%)	102	23	125
[20 %, 1]	11	52	63
Total	113	75	188
Individuals who do not experience a major osteoporotic fracture event
Fracture risk	[0, 20%)	[20 %, 1]	Total
[0, 20%)	1092	70	1162
[20 %, 1]	78	124	202
Total	1170	194	1364
Overall	NRI=0.07	NRI p-value=0.03
Model 1 + FN-BMD	Model 2 + FN-BMD
Individuals who experience a major osteoporotic fracture event
Fracture risk	[0, 20%)	[20 %, 1]	Total
[0, 20%)	94	23	117
[20 %, 1]	9	62	71
Total	103	85	188
Individuals who do not experience a major osteoporotic fracture event
Fracture risk	[0, 20%)	[20 %, 1]	Total
[0, 20%)	1104	60	1164
[20 %, 1]	71	129	200
Total	1175	189	1364
Overall	NRI=0.08	NRI p-value < 0.001
Model 1 + LS-BMD	Model 2 + LS-BMD
Individuals who experience a major osteoporotic fracture event
Fracture risk	[0, 20%)	[20 %, 1]	Total
[0, 20%)	95	27	122
[20 %, 1]	8	58	66
Total	103	85	188
Individuals who do not experience a major osteoporotic fracture event
Fracture risk	[0, 20%)	[20 %, 1]	Total
[0, 20%)	1103	57	1160
[20 %, 1]	76	128	204
Total	1179	185	1364
Overall	NRI=0.12	NRI p-value < 0.001

Model 1: conventional risk factors includes sex, age, BMI, current smoking status, menopausal status. Model 2: conventional risk factors which includes sex, age, BMI, current smoking status, menopausal status plus 27 selected metabolites. Logistic regression was fitted to get the predicted probability of fracture as fracture risk here for all models. Participants were grouped into two categories, [0, 20%) and [20%, 1], based on their fracture risk. NRI=Net reclassification index. CI=confidence interval. BMD=bone mineral density. FN=femoral neck. LS=lumbar spine.