Table 2.

Mortality trends in the red and green zones .

	(1)	(2)	(3)
	Red zone	Green zone	Difference
2019 excess mortality rates (2019 vs 2018)
Annual excess mortality rate	0.239	1.473	−1.234
March–April	−1.357	−0.685	−0.672
2020 excess mortality rates (2020 vs 2018–2019)
January (pre-COVID)	−0.225	−0.457	0.232
February (pre-COVID)	−0.355	−0.434	0.080
March	0.816	−0.087	0.904***
- first 2 weeks	−0.252	−0.165	−0.088
- last 2 weeks	1.139	0.216	0.923***
April	2.696	0.333	2.364***
May	0.341	0.359	−0.018
Nb municipalities	7,358	9,947	1,7305
Total population	23,457,888	30,460,492	53,918,380

* $p<$0.1, ** $p<$0.05, *** $p<$0.01. Standard errors in parentheses clustered at the urban-area level.

NOTE: This table shows excess mortality rates separately computed in the red and the green zones over different time windows. Figures are expressed as number of deaths per 10,000 inhabitants. The first two rows exhibit measures comparing mortality between 2019 and 2018; the other rows compare mortality in 2020 to the average mortality over 2018 and 2019 (as in Eq. (1)). One can see no statistical difference between the two zones before the last two weeks of March 2020 (v.s. 2018–2019). Excess mortality rates then increase significantly more in the red zone than in the green zone and this pattern remains during the first wave. In May 2020 (v.s. 2018–2019) the two zones do not differ anymore in terms of excess mortality rates.