Table 3.
Horse-race between mechanism variables .
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
| Excess mortality rate, wave 1 | |||||
| Poor | 0.51309* | 0.40407* | 0.33580 | 0.01338 | −0.09418 |
| (0.29809) | (0.22907) | (0.27580) | (0.13489) | (0.14011) | |
| Index of frequent contact | 0.54991** | −0.11774 | |||
| (0.26948) | (0.16746) | ||||
| Share of essential workers | 0.51327*** | 0.42277*** | |||
| (0.10279) | (0.12855) | ||||
| Share of over-crowded housing | 1.50339*** | 1.45786*** | |||
| (0.28401) | (0.30927) | ||||
| Urban areas FE | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Controls | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Control outcome mean | 3.689 | 3.709 | 3.687 | 3.795 | 3.786 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.1710 | 0.1720 | 0.1722 | 0.1762 | 0.1768 |
| Observations | 16267 | 16267 | 16267 | 16267 | 16267 |
| Excess mortality rate, wave 2 | |||||
| Poor | 0.45548*** | 0.39177*** | 0.17436 | 0.41355** | 0.16927 |
| (0.15906) | (0.14304) | (0.13468) | (0.20919) | (0.17754) | |
| Index of frequent contact | 0.32137* | −0.36327* | |||
| (0.16477) | (0.21621) | ||||
| Share of essential workers | 0.81386*** | 0.98330*** | |||
| (0.12239) | (0.14665) | ||||
| Share of over-crowded housing | 0.12615 | 0.05592 | |||
| (0.24226) | (0.22109) | ||||
| Urban areas FE | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Controls | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Control outcome mean | 4.870 | 4.882 | 4.868 | 4.879 | 4.858 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.1274 | 0.1276 | 0.1298 | 0.1274 | 0.1299 |
| Observations | 16267 | 16267 | 16267 | 16267 | 16267 |
* 0.1, ** 0.05, *** 0.01. Standard errors in parentheses clustered at the urban-area level.
This table shows the result of regressing municipalities’ excess mortality on a variable measuring either poverty, housing conditions or occupational exposure. The upper part of the table shows results for the first wave (March–April) while the bottom part of the table shows results for the second wave (October–December) on municipalities in all urban areas. The first column only examines the poverty channel. Columns (2) to (4) respectively include one additional variable capturing either the occupation or housing mechanism. Column (5) includes both the poverty dummy and all the mechanism variables. The last column for wave 2 includes the same variables but uses the incidence rate as the dependent variable instead. All regressions include urban-area fixed-effects and control for total population and for the share of inhabitants over 65 y.o. in the municipality. The mechanism variables have been normalized such that coefficients can be interpreted in terms of the effect of a one standard-deviation change, and can be compared with each other. The control outcome mean line reports the average excess mortality rate per 10k inhabitants or incidence rate per 100K inhabitants in each wave in non-poor municipalities (conditional on controls and urban-area fixed effects).