Table 2.

Hazard ratios for first acute hospitalization within 2 years after round 3 according to age-specific GDF15 quartiles at round 3 and to the change in GDF15 levels between rounds 2 and 3 or between round 1 and 3, for each age-specific GDF15 quartile

	Unadjusted		Adjusteda
	HR (95% CI)	p-value	HR (95% CI)	p-value
Age-specific GDF15 quartiles at round 3
Age-specific GDF15round3 quartile 1	1	—	1	—
Age-specific GDF15round3 quartile 2	0.82 (0.54–1.23)	0.33	0.86 (0.57–1.30)	0.48
Age-specific GDF15round3 quartile 3	1.22 (0.84–1.76)	0.30	1.27 (0.86–1.88)	0.23
Age-specific GDF15round3 quartile 4	1.86 (1.32–2.62)	0.0004	2.09 (1.42–3.08)	0.0002
Change in GDF15 levels
ΔGDF15round3-round2b
Age-specific GDF15round2 quartile 1	4.42 (1.26–15.58)	0.02	4.77 (1.35–16.79)	0.01
Age-specific GDF15round2 quartile 2	3.56 (0.95–13.34)	0.06	2.69 (0.78–9.24)	0.12
Age-specific GDF15round2 quartile 3	2.30 (0.77–6.83)	0.13	2.59 (0.85–7.84)	0.09
Age-specific GDF15round2 quartile 4	2.74 (1.14–6.58)	0.02	3.00 (1.21–7.40)	0.02
ΔGDF15round3-round1c
Age-specific GDF15round1 quartile 1	3.03 (1.51–6.06)	0.002	2.88 (1.41–5.87)	0.004
Age-specific GDF15round1 quartile 2	1.99 (0.59–6.73)	0.27	2.36 (0.66–8.43)	0.19
Age-specific GDF15round1 quartile 3	3.58 (1.76–7.29)	0.0004	3.65 (1.60–8.32)	0.002
Age-specific GDF15round1 quartile 4	2.15 (1.19–3.89)	0.01	2.18 (1.16–4.09)	0.02

^aModel adjusted for sex, BMI, smoking, cardiovascular diagnosis, hypertension diagnosis, diabetes diagnosis, and total cholesterol

^bModel included GDF15_round2, ΔGDF15_{round3-round2}, and the interaction between the two variables as main effects

^cModel included GDF15_round1, ΔGDF15_{round3-round1}, and the interaction between the two variables as main effects