Table 2.

Transitions of Ages 12–24 Who Would Have Initiated as Menthol Smokers, Under a Menthol Ban, Total and African American Population (% Transitions)

Product type	Status Quoa	Total population				African American population
		Menthol Ban				Menthol Ban
		Mean	Min	Max	Net effectb	Mean	Min	Max	Net effectb
Become nonmenthol cigarette users (exclusively or with other products)	—	33.0	1.9	79.0	—	26.3	1.3	73.0	—
Become nonmenthol cigar users (exclusively or with other products, but not cigarettes)	—	5.5	0.0	20.0	—	6.7	0.0	25.0	—
Become illicit menthol cigarette or cigar user	—	2.6	0.0	10.0	—	3.6	0.0	10.0	—
Total combustible use (status quo all menthol cigarettes)c	100.0	41.1	3.5	83.0	−58.9	36.6	3.2	81.0	−63.4
Become exclusive smokeless tobacco or other oral tobacco product users	—	2.2	0.0	5.0	2.2	0.6	0.0	3.0	0.6
Become NNDP users, such as e-cigarettes or heated tobacco products (exclusively or in combination with other products, but not cigarettes or cigars)	—	17.6	3.4	25.0	17.6	14.6	1.8	23.0	14.6
No tobacco or NNDP use	—	39.1	6.0	92.3	39.1	48.2	10.0	95.0	48.2

NNDP = novel nicotine delivery product.

^aNo Status Quo Scenario was included for the initiation question, the question asked exclusively about those who would have become menthol cigarette users, as such the Status Quo is 100% total combustible use.

^bNet effects are measured as changes from menthol cigarette use in the Status Quo Scenario to other categories under the Menthol Ban Scenarios and are computed as the mean.

^cTotal combustible use is measured as the sum of all the transitions to all combustible products, cigarettes, cigars, and illicit products.