Table 4.

Transitions of Age 35–54 Menthol Smokers in the Next 2 Years Under the Status Quo and a Menthol Ban, Total and African American Population (% Transitions)

Product type	Total population					African American population
	Status Quo	Menthol Ban	Net effectsa			Status Quo	Menthol Ban	Net effectsa
	Mean	Mean	Mean	Min	Max	Mean	Mean	Mean	Min	Max
Continue to be menthol cigarette smokers (exclusively or with other products)	67.9	—	—	—	—	79.3	—	—	—	—
Switch to nonmenthol cigarettes (exclusively or with other products, except menthol cigarettes)	4.6	45.7	—	—	—	2.9	39.6	—	—	—
Switch to cigars, especially little cigars, filtered cigars, or cigarillos (exclusively or with other products, but not cigarettes)	2.7	—	—	—	—	3.3	—	—	—	—
Switch to nonmenthol cigars, especially little cigars, filtered cigars, or cigarillos (exclusively or with other products, but not cigarettes)	—	3.7	—	—	—	—	7.5	—	—	—
Switch to illicit menthol cigarette or cigar use	—	5.7	—	—	—	—	6.7	—	—	—
Total combustible use b	75.2	55.1	−20.1	−36.0	15.0	85.5	53.8	−31.7	−70.0	−11.0
Switch to exclusive smokeless tobacco or other oral tobacco products	2.6	2.4	−0.2	−10	4.0	1.1	1.4	0.3	−5.0	3.0
Switch to novel nicotine delivery products, such as e-cigarettes or heated tobacco products (exclusively or combined with other products, but not cigarettes or cigars)	9.7	20.0	10.3	−10.0	27.0	5.1	17.0	11.9	−3.0	26.0
Quit regular use of all tobacco or novel nicotine delivery products	12.5	22.5	10.0	0.0	35.0	8.3	27.8	19.5	0.0	50.0

^aNet effects are measured as the mean of the differences between the transitions from menthol cigarette use in the Status Quo and transitions under a Menthol Ban Scenarios.

^bTotal combustible use is the sum of all the transitions to all combustible products, cigarettes, cigars, and illicit products.