Table 5.
Transitions of Age 35–54 Nonmenthol Smokers in Next 2 Years Under the Status Quo and a Menthol Ban, Total and African American Population (% Transitions)
| Product type | Total population | African American population | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Status Quo | Menthol Ban | Net effectsa | Status Quo | Menthol Ban | Net effectsa | |||||
| Mean | Mean | Mean | Min | Max | Mean | Mean | Mean | Min | Max | |
| Switch to menthol cigarettes (excl. or with other products, except nonmenthol cigarettes) | 2.1 | — | — | — | — | 10.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Continue to be nonmenthol cigarette smokers (exclusively or with other products) | 76.6 | 77.6 | 79.0 | — | — | 69.9 | 79.9 | — | — | — |
| Switch to cigars, especially little cigars filtered cigars, or cigarillos (exclusively or with other products, but not cigarettes) | 0.7 | — | — | — | — | 2.4 | — | — | — | — |
| Switch to nonmenthol cigars, especially little cigars, filtered cigars, or cigarillos (exclusively or with other products, but not cigarettes) | — | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | — | — | 2.3 | — | — | — |
| Total combustible use b | 79.4 | 78.6 | −0.8 | −6.0 | 7.0 | 83.2 | 82.2 | −1.0 | −12.0 | 1.0 |
| Switch to exclusive smokeless tobacco or other oral tobacco products | 1.7 | 1.6 | −0.1 | −8.0 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | −2.0 | 1.0 |
| Switch to novel nicotine delivery products, such as e-cigarettes or heated tobacco products (exclusively or in combination with other products, but not cigarettes or cigars) | 8.1 | 8.2 | −0.1 | −5.0 | 2.0 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 0.4 | −8.0 | 5.0 |
| Quit regular use of all tobacco or novel nicotine delivery products | 10.8 | 11.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 0.5 | −5.0 | 7.0 |
aNet effects are measured as the mean of the differences between the transitions from menthol cigarette use in the Status Quo and transitions under a Menthol Ban Scenarios.
bTotal combustible use is the sum of all the transitions to all combustible products, cigarettes, cigars, and illicit product.