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. 2021 Oct 7;21:1042. doi: 10.1186/s12879-021-06757-6

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

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Fig. 3 — A Visualising ART rollout: change in the rate of ART initiation (per year) between 2000 and 2018 as estimated from the model. B Estimates of the fragility index of ART programmes by country. C Three-way scatter plot between the posterior samples of: the fragility index of ART programmes (y-axis), the proportion of all persons living with HIV that initiated ART over the period 2000–2018 (x-axis) and the predicted levels of pretreatment NNRTI resistance (PDR) in 2018 (colour gradient). BWA Botswana, ESW Eswatini, LSO Lesotho, MWI Malawi, MOZ Mozambique, NAM Namibia, RSA Republic of South Africa, ZMB Zambia, ZWE Zimbabwe