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. 2021 Oct 8;4:146. doi: 10.1038/s41746-021-00511-7

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 6 — New daily confirmed cases, number of NPIs, F^(u) and R_eff for Texas, USA (a) and Aichi, Japan (b), chosen to represent a location with high and low COVID-19 associated deaths, respectively. Seven-day moving average of the daily confirmed case counts and number of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) are plotted on the left y axis, and the 7-day moving average of F^(u) (see Eq. (11)) and the 28-day moving average of R_eff (see Eq. (13)) are plotted on the right y axis. For R_eff < 1 (shaded gray regions below the horizontal dotted line), dynamics are tending toward the Disease-Free Equilibrium (DFE)¹¹⁸. These areas often overlap with the dates when multiple NPIs are imposed.