. 2021 Apr 4;36(11):2399–2410. doi: 10.1007/s00384-021-03914-w

Table 4.

Cumulative incidence of recurrence and hazards for recurrence among patients with rectal cancer

	Stage I–II (N = 1208)	Stage III (N = 425)
Gender
Male Female	0.14 0.10	1.00 (reference) 0.77 (0.54–1.11)	0.39 0.37	1.00 (reference) 0.89 (0.63–1.24)
Age
<65 years 65–74 years ≥75 years	0.13 0.10 0.17	1.00 (reference) 0.80 (0.55–1.17) 1.28 (0.83–1.98)	0.41 0.37 0.33	1.00 (reference) 0.94 (0.65–1.36) 0.73 (0.47–1.13)
ASA classification
ASA I ASA II ASA III ASA IV	0.10 0.13 0.17 n.r.	1.00 (reference) 1.12 (0.70–1.79) 1.73 (0.98–3.05) n.r.	0.41 0.39 0.41 n.r.	1.00 (reference) 0.93 (0.63–1.36) 0.98 (0.56–1.71) n.r.
(y) pT stage
0 1 2 3 4	0.06 0.05 0.10 0.24 n.r.	0.20 (0.08–0.47) 0.27 (0.15–0.46) 0.51 (0.35–0.74) 1.00 (reference) n.r.	0.19 0.13 0.21 0.44 0.71	0.33 (0.09–1.12) 0.25 (0.07–0.87) 0.45 (0.28–0.73) 1.00 (reference) 2.44 (1.20–4.99)
(y) pN stage
0 1 2	0.13 n.r. n.r.	1.00 (reference) n.a. n.a.	n.a. 0.32 0.55	n.a. 1.00 (reference) 1.98 (1.43–2.74)
Morphology
Adenocarcinoma Mucinous adenocarcinoma	0.12 0.21	1.00 (reference) 1.40 (0.63–3.13)	0.38 0.38	1.00 (reference) 0.71 (0.33–1.53)
Differentiation grade
Well/moderate Poor/undifferentiated	0.13 0.19	1.00 (reference) 1.38 (0.60–3.20)	0.36 0.56	1.00 (reference) 1.43 (0.85–2.41)
Treatment
Neoadjuvant RT + surgery Neoadjuvant CRT + surgery Surgery Surgery + adjuvant chemotherapy~	0.10 0.17 0.11 n.r.	0.78 (0.48–1.27) 1.51 (1.02–2.24) 1.00 (reference) n.r.	0.34 0.52 0.29 0.15	1.23 (0.81–1.86) 1.76 (1.20–2.60) 1.00 (reference) n.r.

Stage I–II (N = 1208)

Stage III (N = 425)

Crude 3-year cumulative incidence

Adjusted HR*
(95% CI)

Crude 3-year cumulative incidence

Adjusted HR*
(95% CI)

Gender

Male

Female

0.14

0.10

1.00 (reference)

0.77 (0.54–1.11)

0.39

0.37

1.00 (reference)

0.89 (0.63–1.24)

Age

<65 years

65–74 years

≥75 years

0.13

0.10

0.17

1.00 (reference)

0.80 (0.55–1.17)

1.28 (0.83–1.98)

0.41

0.37

0.33

1.00 (reference)

0.94 (0.65–1.36)

0.73 (0.47–1.13)

ASA classification

ASA I

ASA II

ASA III

ASA IV

0.10

0.13

0.17

n.r.

1.00 (reference)

1.12 (0.70–1.79)

1.73 (0.98–3.05)

n.r.

0.41

0.39

0.41

n.r.

1.00 (reference)

0.93 (0.63–1.36)

0.98 (0.56–1.71)

n.r.

(y) pT stage

0.06

0.05

0.10

0.24

n.r.

0.20 (0.08–0.47)

0.27 (0.15–0.46)

0.51 (0.35–0.74)

1.00 (reference)

n.r.

0.19

0.13

0.21

0.44

0.71

0.33 (0.09–1.12)

0.25 (0.07–0.87)

0.45 (0.28–0.73)

1.00 (reference)

2.44 (1.20–4.99)

(y) pN stage

0.13

n.r.

1.00 (reference)

n.a.

0.32

0.55

n.a.

1.00 (reference)

1.98 (1.43–2.74)

Morphology

Adenocarcinoma

Mucinous adenocarcinoma

0.12

0.21

1.00 (reference)

1.40 (0.63–3.13)

0.38

1.00 (reference)

0.71 (0.33–1.53)

Differentiation grade

Well/moderate

Poor/undifferentiated

0.13

0.19

1.00 (reference)

1.38 (0.60–3.20)

0.36

0.56

1.00 (reference)

1.43 (0.85–2.41)

Treatment

Neoadjuvant RT + surgery

Neoadjuvant CRT + surgery

Surgery

Surgery + adjuvant chemotherapy~

0.10

0.17

0.11

n.r.

0.78 (0.48–1.27)

1.51 (1.02–2.24)

1.00 (reference)

n.r.

0.34

0.52

0.29

0.15

1.23 (0.81–1.86)

1.76 (1.20–2.60)

1.00 (reference)

n.r.

ASA classification unknown, T stage unknown, N stage unknown, signet ring cell carcinoma or other morphology, unknown differentiation grade, and residual tumor unknown were included in the analyses but results not shown

RT, radiotherapy; CRT, chemoradiation; HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; n.a., not applicable; n.r., not reported, numbers too small

To prevent problems with multicollinearity between pT, pN, and TNM stage in the multivariable model, TNM stage is not included in the multivariable model

*Competing risk analysis for death as competing event that prevents CRC recurrence from occurring. Hazard ratios are cause-specific hazards for recurrence in the presence of the competing risk of dying

~ In the Netherlands, adjuvant chemotherapy is only recommended for patients with stage III or high-risk stage II colon cancer and not routinely given to rectal cancer patients